Sami Pant and Eun Jeong Cha, 2022. “Projection of future hurricane risk in changing climate considering population vulnerability”, Shore & Beach, 90(4), 3-13.
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Projection of future hurricane risk in changing climate considering population vulnerability
Sami Pant, Ph.D., P.E.(1) and Eun Jeong Cha, Ph.D.(2)
1) Senior scientist, Aon, Chicago, Illinois, USA,60601
2) Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois, USA 61801
Future climate is expected to generate more intense hurricanes compared to the present, leading to more devastating impacts in hurricane-prone regions. Under the prospect of increasing hurricane intensity, risk assessment considering climate change is the first step in planning for hurricane risk mitigation strategies. In this study, climate-dependent regional hurricane risk is assessed for eight counties extending across the U.S. south and east coast. A hurricane impact model is developed and used to assess the regional hurricane risk by considering population vulnerability. It is found that hurricane risks in the future climate are higher than the present for all the counties, though the degree of increase is found to differ across the counties. It is also observed that the demographic composition of a region has an appreciable influence on the regional hurricane risk.